Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $260 held · ended Oct 31

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$260.09

Combined PnL

-$55.44

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$83.02

Total Shares346

Combined PnL-$64.82

Up7 traders

Total Value$101.97

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$9.38

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$122.37	$75.09	-$47.29	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$96.78	$53.51	-$43.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$25.59	$21.58	-$4.02
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 29.4¢	$101.58	$42.59	-$59	52% 8084-7595 (15679)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 78.7¢	$27.58	$28.39	+$0.8	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 78¢	$20.1	$18.68	-$1.42	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$9.74	$13.16	+$3.41	54% 11125-9485 (20610)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$9	$12.65	+$3.65	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$3.45	$11.85	+$8.4	49% 78260-81715 (159975)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 96¢	$10.67	$10.95	+$0.28	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$12.53	$10.89	-$1.64	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$8	$10.3	+$2.3	58% 60841-44423 (105264)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$9.4	$10.11	+$0.71	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$6.1	$8.05	+$1.95	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.56	$4.9	+$0.35	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.48	+$0.23	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 28.7¢	$15.48	$0.03	-$15.45	62% 44041-27052 (71093)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.37

Value

$75.09

PnL

-$47.29

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

Both legs:

Down$96.7849.7¢-$43.27

Up$25.5986¢-$4.02

ply-pm2CTR

Down

Invested

$101.58

Value

$42.59

PnL

-$59

Record

52%

8084-7595 (15679)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$27.58

Value

$28.39

PnL

+$0.8

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$1.42

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$9.74

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$3.41

Record

54%

11125-9485 (20610)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

Value

$12.65

PnL

+$3.65

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.45

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$8.4

Record

49%

78260-81715 (159975)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.67

Value

$10.95

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.53

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$1.64

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$2.3

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$0.71

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$1.95

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.48

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$15.45

Record

62%

44041-27052 (71093)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.