Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
12
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$191.56
-$143.16
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 81.3Β’ | $174.37 | $109.45 | -$64.92 | 52% 8055-7577 (15632) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 81.3Β’ | $89.03 | $109.45 | +$20.42 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 26.6Β’ | $85.34 | β | -$85.34 | |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.2Β’ | $61.21 | β | -$61.21 | 49% 78195-81703 (159898) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 80.2Β’ | $35.94 | $44.81 | +$8.87 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 69Β’ | $30.23 | $30 | -$0.23 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 58.8Β’ | $54.72 | β | -$54.72 | 46% 38408-45370 (83778) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.8Β’ | $8.9 | β | -$8.9 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 15Β’ | $7.5 | β | -$7.5 | 62% 44015-27038 (71053) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.4Β’ | $4.78 | β | -$4.78 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 51Β’ | $5.61 | β | -$5.61 | 56% 8153-6296 (14449) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.4Β’ | $6.4 | β | -$6.4 | 64% 40387-23103 (63490) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 70Β’ | $5.11 | $7.3 | +$2.19 | 66% 126538-65157 (191695) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 19.2Β’ | $3.47 | β | -$3.47 | 56% 58383-45054 (103437) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17Β’ | $1.4 | β | -$1.4 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
Invested
$174.37
Value
$109.45
PnL
-$64.92
Record
52%
8055-7577 (15632)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$61.21
Value
β
PnL
-$61.21
Record
49%
78195-81703 (159898)
Invested
$35.94
Value
$44.81
PnL
+$8.87
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
Invested
$30.23
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.23
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$54.72
Value
β
PnL
-$54.72
Record
46%
38408-45370 (83778)
Invested
$8.9
Value
β
PnL
-$8.9
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
β
PnL
-$7.5
Record
62%
44015-27038 (71053)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.78
Value
β
PnL
-$4.78
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Invested
$5.61
Value
β
PnL
-$5.61
Record
56%
8153-6296 (14449)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
β
PnL
-$6.4
Record
64%
40387-23103 (63490)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$2.19
Record
66%
126538-65157 (191695)
Invested
$3.47
Value
β
PnL
-$3.47
Record
56%
58383-45054 (103437)
Invested
$1.4
Value
β
PnL
-$1.4
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown β $0
aaa221
Up β $44.81
thesidehustle
Up β $30

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
uninformedfloww
CTRDown β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown β $0
wzbbb
CTRDown β $0

ohioism
CTRDown β $0