Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$318.51
$20.64
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.9¢ | $109.45 | $125.94 | +$16.49 | 52% 8084-7595 (15679) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.9¢ | $75.39 | $125.94 | +$50.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.3¢ | $34.06 | — | -$34.06 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.3¢ | $3.06 | — | -$3.06 | 59% 62520-43633 (106153) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $35.05 | $60.99 | +$25.93 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $39.36 | $37.86 | -$1.5 | 65% 125846-67348 (193194) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $28.86 | $20.23 | -$8.63 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $8.79 | $15.42 | +$6.63 | 61% 95474-60238 (155712) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $17.5 | $26.31 | +$8.81 | 55% 18125-14708 (32833) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $8.83 | $15 | +$6.17 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.1¢ | $10.9 | — | -$10.9 | 62% 44041-27052 (71093) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 8.9¢ | $1.71 | — | -$1.71 | 46% 38429-45392 (83821) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $4.43 | — | -$4.43 | 58% 60841-44423 (105264) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.97 | $7.11 | +$0.14 | 93% 24031-1800 (25831) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.6 | $5.1 | +$2.5 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $3.06 | $4.56 | +$1.5 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $0.81 | — | -$0.81 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
Invested
$109.45
Value
$125.94
PnL
+$16.49
Record
52%
8084-7595 (15679)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.06
Value
—
PnL
-$3.06
Record
59%
62520-43633 (106153)
Invested
$35.05
Value
$60.99
PnL
+$25.93
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
$39.36
Value
$37.86
PnL
-$1.5
Record
65%
125846-67348 (193194)
Invested
$28.86
Value
$20.23
PnL
-$8.63
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$8.79
Value
$15.42
PnL
+$6.63
Record
61%
95474-60238 (155712)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$26.31
PnL
+$8.81
Record
55%
18125-14708 (32833)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.17
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.9
Value
—
PnL
-$10.9
Record
62%
44041-27052 (71093)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.71
Value
—
PnL
-$1.71
Record
46%
38429-45392 (83821)
Invested
$4.43
Value
—
PnL
-$4.43
Record
58%
60841-44423 (105264)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$7.11
PnL
+$0.14
Record
93%
24031-1800 (25831)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
Invested
$0.81
Value
—
PnL
-$0.81
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $60.99
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $37.86
asdaefef
Down — $20.23
asidjasiodja
Down — $15.42
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $26.31
thesidehustle
Down — $15
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0