Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$17.42
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $539.25 | $565.49 | +$26.24 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.3¢ | $408.78 | $565.49 | +$156.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24¢ | $130.47 | — | -$130.47 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $302 | $304.23 | +$2.24 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 81.8¢ | $117.47 | $139.47 | +$22 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $42.32 | $20.37 | -$17.06 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $37.5 | $50 | +$12.5 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $23.96 | $25.3 | +$1.34 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $22.57 | $20.99 | -$1.58 | 59% 22517-15896 (38413) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $17.12 | $26.99 | +$9.87 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $7.4 | — | -$7.4 | 58% 60787-44362 (105149) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 56% 8126-6271 (14397) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $1.98 | — | -$1.98 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20241-19372 (39613) |
Invested
$539.25
Value
$565.49
PnL
+$26.24
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$302
Value
$304.23
PnL
+$2.24
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$117.47
Value
$139.47
PnL
+$22
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Invested
$42.32
Value
$20.37
PnL
-$17.06
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$37.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$12.5
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$23.96
Value
$25.3
PnL
+$1.34
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$22.57
Value
$20.99
PnL
-$1.58
Record
59%
22517-15896 (38413)
Invested
$17.12
Value
$26.99
PnL
+$9.87
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
Invested
$7.4
Value
—
PnL
-$7.4
Record
58%
60787-44362 (105149)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
56%
8126-6271 (14397)
Invested
$1.98
Value
—
PnL
-$1.98
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20241-19372 (39613)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $304.23
MayorMamdani
Down — $139.47
aaa221
Down — $20.37
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $25.3
rabadabadoo
Down — $20.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $26.99
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0