Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Up 50%
3 arb excluded
$1.1K
$34.84
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $291.22 | $285.25 | -$5.97 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.1¢ | $194.12 | $285.25 | +$91.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.8¢ | $97.1 | — | -$97.1 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 41.4¢ | $252.64 | $136 | -$116.64 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.4¢ | $166.44 | — | -$166.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.4¢ | $86.2 | $136 | +$49.8 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $273.42 | $279 | +$5.58 | 93% 23963-1799 (25762) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 86.4¢ | $95.69 | $76.16 | -$19.53 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 86.4¢ | $65.79 | $76.16 | +$10.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $29.9 | — | -$29.9 | |
LI Little-big | Upavg 35.9¢ | $53.86 | $150 | +$96.14 | 35% 18950-35949 (54899) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $64.05 | — | -$64.05 | 56% 8126-6271 (14397) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $50.21 | $67.8 | +$17.59 | 46% 38360-45313 (83673) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $37.4 | — | -$37.4 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $50 | +$18.5 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 58.7¢ | $26.32 | $44.86 | +$18.54 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.6¢ | $20.04 | — | -$20.04 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $16.97 | $32.99 | +$16.01 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.5¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.6¢ | $8.85 | — | -$8.85 | 66% 112343-59004 (171347) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | — | -$4.7 | 58% 60787-44362 (105149) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20241-19372 (39613) |
Invested
$291.22
Value
$285.25
PnL
-$5.97
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
Invested
$252.64
Value
$136
PnL
-$116.64
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.42
Value
$279
PnL
+$5.58
Record
93%
23963-1799 (25762)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$95.69
Value
$76.16
PnL
-$19.53
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.86
Value
$150
PnL
+$96.14
Record
35%
18950-35949 (54899)
Invested
$64.05
Value
—
PnL
-$64.05
Record
56%
8126-6271 (14397)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$50.21
Value
$67.8
PnL
+$17.59
Record
46%
38360-45313 (83673)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$37.4
Value
—
PnL
-$37.4
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$31.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$18.5
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$26.32
Value
$44.86
PnL
+$18.54
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$20.04
Value
—
PnL
-$20.04
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
Invested
$16.97
Value
$32.99
PnL
+$16.01
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
Invested
$8.85
Value
—
PnL
-$8.85
Record
66%
112343-59004 (171347)
Invested
$4.7
Value
—
PnL
-$4.7
Record
58%
60787-44362 (105149)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20241-19372 (39613)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $279
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Up — $150
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
pspspsps5
Up — $67.8
ohioism
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $50
aaa221
Up — $44.86