Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
8
Up 50%
3 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$41.67
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 79.4Β’ | $777.91 | $678.02 | -$99.89 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 79.4Β’ | $538.3 | $678.02 | +$139.72 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 29.9Β’ | $239.61 | β | -$239.61 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 67Β’ | $274.2 | $347.24 | +$73.04 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 67Β’ | $232.62 | $347.24 | +$114.62 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 12.9Β’ | $41.58 | β | -$41.58 | |
![]() MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 75Β’ | $79.44 | $94.26 | +$14.82 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 75Β’ | $70.69 | $94.26 | +$23.57 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 4.5Β’ | $8.75 | β | -$8.75 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88.3Β’ | $50.47 | $57.14 | +$6.67 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9Β’ | $25.71 | $25.74 | +$0.03 | 59% 62464-43615 (106079) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 26Β’ | $13 | β | -$13 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.5Β’ | $11.06 | β | -$11.06 | 56% 8126-6271 (14397) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.9Β’ | $10.98 | $12.36 | +$1.38 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 97Β’ | $8.35 | $8.61 | +$0.26 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.3Β’ | $21.24 | β | -$21.24 | 46% 38360-45313 (83673) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.6Β’ | $4.7 | β | -$4.7 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
Invested
$777.91
Value
$678.02
PnL
-$99.89
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$274.2
Value
$347.24
PnL
+$73.04
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$79.44
Value
$94.26
PnL
+$14.82
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.47
Value
$57.14
PnL
+$6.67
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$25.71
Value
$25.74
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
62464-43615 (106079)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13
Value
β
PnL
-$13
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$11.06
Value
β
PnL
-$11.06
Record
56%
8126-6271 (14397)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$12.36
PnL
+$1.38
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.35
Value
$8.61
PnL
+$0.26
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$21.24
Value
β
PnL
-$21.24
Record
46%
38360-45313 (83673)
Invested
$4.7
Value
β
PnL
-$4.7
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded

MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage β excluded
aaa221
Up β $57.14
0x50f7
Up β $25.74

G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown β $0
wzbbb
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $12.36

UpandDownSyndrome
Up β $8.61

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0