Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$276.8
$48.99
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $120 | $80 | -$40 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83¢ | $66.4 | $80 | +$13.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.3¢ | $53.6 | — | -$53.6 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 69¢ | $78.28 | $113.45 | +$35.17 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $34.92 | $51 | +$16.08 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $22.2 | $20 | -$2.2 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $5.95 | $7.35 | +$1.4 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $5.7 | $5 | -$0.7 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $0.75 | — | -$0.75 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
Invested
$120
Value
$80
PnL
-$40
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.28
Value
$113.45
PnL
+$35.17
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Invested
$34.92
Value
$51
PnL
+$16.08
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$2.2
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
Invested
$5.95
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$1.4
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.7
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
—
PnL
-$0.75
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
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