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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 64%

Total Value

$157.64

Combined PnL

-$56.12

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$157.64
Total Shares158
Combined PnL+$2.24
Down7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares229
Combined PnL-$58.36
Up — 42%Down — 58%
PL
ply-pm2
Up

Invested

$112.15

Value

$100.52

PnL

-$11.62

Record

52%

7995-7522 (15517)

MayorMamdani<$100
Up

Invested

$27.15

Value

$31

PnL

+$3.85

Record

55%

45436-37823 (83259)

WZ
wzbbbCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$17.62

Value

—

PnL

-$17.62

Record

56%

8126-6271 (14397)

DE
devonpoll<$100
Up

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$0.72

Record

51%

20241-19372 (39613)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Up

Invested

$9.39

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$6.51

Record

58%

38145-27331 (65476)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$29

Value

—

PnL

-$29

Record

62%

43985-26997 (70982)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$7.28

Value

—

PnL

-$7.28

Record

56%

58346-45004 (103350)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.71

Value

—

PnL

-$0.71

Record

59%

62464-43615 (106079)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

58%

60787-44362 (105149)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.3

Value

—

PnL

-$1.3

Record

52%

90814-85344 (176158)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

—

PnL

-$1.25

Record

66%

126437-65111 (191548)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$13.46

Value

—

PnL

+$2.79

Record

64%

24039-13275 (37314)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xe8136632...1fe8f7
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793459100

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

Up — $100.52

-$11.62

MayorMamdani

Up — $31

+$3.85
WZ

wzbbb

CTR

Down — $0

-$17.62
DE

devonpoll

Up — $10.22

+$0.72
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $15.9

+$6.51

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Down — $0

-$29
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Down — $0

-$7.28
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.71
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.2
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.3
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