Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 62%
2 arb excluded
$10.6K
$49.21
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$8.96 | 59% 62464-43615 (106079) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 77.3¢ | $860.23 | $759.31 | -$100.92 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.3¢ | $484.2 | — | -$484.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $376.03 | $759.31 | +$383.28 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $480.28 | $606.67 | +$126.39 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $318.2 | — | -$318.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.7¢ | $162.08 | $606.67 | +$444.59 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 58¢ | $72.2 | $124.52 | +$52.32 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $57.63 | — | -$52.35 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 31.6¢ | $29.9 | $94.7 | +$64.8 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $28.38 | — | -$28.38 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $19.85 | $29.99 | +$10.15 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 62.6¢ | $15.29 | — | -$15.29 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $12.7 | — | -$12.7 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $4.2 | $20 | +$15.8 | 58% 60787-44362 (105149) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $7.3 | — | -$7.3 | 51% 20241-19372 (39613) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $7.59 | $11.13 | +$3.54 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $6.57 | $11 | +$4.43 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $0.91 | $6.15 | +$5.24 | 46% 38360-45313 (83673) |
Invested
$8,952.97
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$8.96
Record
59%
62464-43615 (106079)
Invested
$860.23
Value
$759.31
PnL
-$100.92
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$480.28
Value
$606.67
PnL
+$126.39
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$72.2
Value
$124.52
PnL
+$52.32
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$57.63
Value
—
PnL
-$52.35
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
ohioism<$100Invested
$29.9
Value
$94.7
PnL
+$64.8
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$28.38
Value
—
PnL
-$28.38
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Invested
$19.85
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$10.15
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
Invested
$15.29
Value
—
PnL
-$15.29
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
Invested
$12.7
Value
—
PnL
-$12.7
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$15.8
Record
58%
60787-44362 (105149)
Invested
$7.3
Value
—
PnL
-$7.3
Record
51%
20241-19372 (39613)
Invested
$7.59
Value
$11.13
PnL
+$3.54
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
Invested
$6.57
Value
$11
PnL
+$4.43
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$6.15
PnL
+$5.24
Record
46%
38360-45313 (83673)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $124.52
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $94.7
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $29.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0