Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Up 64%
2 arb excluded
$555.54
-$15.6
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $195.95 | $204.87 | +$8.92 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.3¢ | $105.02 | $204.87 | +$99.86 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.2¢ | $90.94 | — | -$90.94 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $280.6 | $107.2 | -$173.4 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.7¢ | $218.35 | — | -$218.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.1¢ | $62.25 | $107.2 | +$44.95 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $66.1 | $95.32 | +$29.22 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $47.1 | $50 | +$2.9 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $32.32 | $32.65 | +$0.33 | 93% 23963-1799 (25762) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 38.1¢ | $16.77 | $24.58 | +$7.82 | 54% 11100-9462 (20562) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $18.6 | — | -$18.6 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $16 | — | -$16 | 58% 60787-44362 (105149) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $25.66 | $19.27 | +$5.4 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.9¢ | $13.36 | — | -$13.36 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 96.1¢ | $24.58 | $16.06 | -$8.52 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $8.97 | — | -$8.97 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 25.1¢ | $1.4 | $5.58 | +$4.18 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
Invested
$195.95
Value
$204.87
PnL
+$8.92
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
Invested
$280.6
Value
$107.2
PnL
-$173.4
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.1
Value
$95.32
PnL
+$29.22
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
ohioism<$100Invested
$47.1
Value
$50
PnL
+$2.9
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
Invested
$32.32
Value
$32.65
PnL
+$0.33
Record
93%
23963-1799 (25762)
Invested
$16.77
Value
$24.58
PnL
+$7.82
Record
54%
11100-9462 (20562)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$18.6
Value
—
PnL
-$18.6
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$16
Value
—
PnL
-$16
Record
58%
60787-44362 (105149)
Invested
$25.66
Value
$19.27
PnL
+$5.4
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$13.36
Value
—
PnL
-$13.36
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Invested
$24.58
Value
$16.06
PnL
-$8.52
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
Invested
$8.97
Value
—
PnL
-$8.97
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$5.58
PnL
+$4.18
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $95.32
ohioism
Up — $50
hoodquant
Up — $32.65
thesidehustle
Up — $24.58
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $19.27
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0