Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 75%
3 arb excluded
$753.37
$37.34
Smart Money Signal
10 of 14 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $271.11 | $213.9 | -$57.21 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $181.18 | — | -$181.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42¢ | $89.94 | $213.9 | +$123.97 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $180.34 | $195 | +$14.66 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.2¢ | $119.4 | $195 | +$75.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $60.94 | — | -$60.94 | |
LI Little-big | Upavg 41.2¢ | $61.79 | $150 | +$88.21 | 35% 18950-35949 (54899) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $76.47 | $44.7 | -$31.76 | 55% 45436-37823 (83259) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $46.34 | — | -$46.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.4¢ | $30.13 | $44.7 | +$14.58 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 45.7¢ | $48.2 | $105.38 | +$57.18 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $52.4 | $44.38 | -$8.02 | 54% 11100-9462 (20562) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $43.72 | — | -$43.72 | 58% 38145-27331 (65476) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $2.68 | — | -$2.68 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $11.44 | — | -$11.44 | 64% 58692-33276 (91968) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 36.9¢ | $9.11 | — | -$9.11 | 56% 58346-45004 (103350) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $22.43 | — | -$18.3 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.3¢ | $1.43 | — | -$1.43 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $3.9 | — | -$3.9 | 66% 126437-65111 (191548) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112343-59004 (171347) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $0.4 | — | -$0.4 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20241-19372 (39613) |
Invested
$271.11
Value
$213.9
PnL
-$57.21
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.34
Value
$195
PnL
+$14.66
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.79
Value
$150
PnL
+$88.21
Record
35%
18950-35949 (54899)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$76.47
Value
$44.7
PnL
-$31.76
Record
55%
45436-37823 (83259)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.2
Value
$105.38
PnL
+$57.18
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$52.4
Value
$44.38
PnL
-$8.02
Record
54%
11100-9462 (20562)
Invested
$43.72
Value
—
PnL
-$43.72
Record
58%
38145-27331 (65476)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
—
PnL
-$2.68
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$11.44
Value
—
PnL
-$11.44
Record
64%
58692-33276 (91968)
Invested
$9.11
Value
—
PnL
-$9.11
Record
56%
58346-45004 (103350)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$22.43
Value
—
PnL
-$18.3
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$1.43
Value
—
PnL
-$1.43
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
66%
126437-65111 (191548)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112343-59004 (171347)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
—
PnL
-$0.4
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20241-19372 (39613)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Up — $150
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $105.38
thesidehustle
Up — $44.38
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0