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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 62%

Total Value

$120.61

Combined PnL

-$186.02

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares375

Combined PnL-$232.37

Down5 traders

Total Value$120.61

Total Shares121

Combined PnL+$46.35

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 43¢	$151.69	—	-$151.69	52% 7967-7500 (15467)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$29.41	—	-$29.41	55% 45398-37789 (83187)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$31.92	$41.26	+$9.34	63% 1771-1034 (2805)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$27.65	—	-$27.65	57% 71206-54306 (125512)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 24¢	$5.8	$24.17	+$18.37	56% 58323-44993 (103316)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$19.94	$24	+$4.06	58% 38135-27322 (65457)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$9.25	—	-$9.25	54% 11081-9455 (20536)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 81¢	$10.6	$10.49	-$0.11	55% 18044-14641 (32685)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 29¢	$6	$20.69	+$14.69	58% 60765-44349 (105114)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$7.9	—	-$7.9	51% 20230-19367 (39597)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$3.7	—	-$3.7	62% 43966-26982 (70948)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2.07	—	-$2.07	64% 23991-13230 (37221)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$0.7	—	-$0.7	64% 58688-33274 (91962)

Invested

$151.69

Value

—

PnL

-$151.69

Record

52%

7967-7500 (15467)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$29.41

Value

—

PnL

-$29.41

Record

55%

45398-37789 (83187)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700<$100

Invested

$31.92

Value

$41.26

PnL

+$9.34

Record

63%

1771-1034 (2805)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$27.65

Value

—

PnL

-$27.65

Record

57%

71206-54306 (125512)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$18.37

Record

56%

58323-44993 (103316)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$24

PnL

+$4.06

Record

58%

38135-27322 (65457)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

—

PnL

-$9.25

Record

54%

11081-9455 (20536)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.49

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

18044-14641 (32685)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$6

Value

$20.69

PnL

+$14.69

Record

58%

60765-44349 (105114)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

—

PnL

-$7.9

Record

51%

20230-19367 (39597)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

—

PnL

-$3.7

Record

62%

43966-26982 (70948)

Invested

$2.07

Value

—

PnL

-$2.07

Record

64%

23991-13230 (37221)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

—

PnL

-$0.7

Record

64%

58688-33274 (91962)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc5884d19...4bcdb8

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793455800

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down — $41.26

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $24.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $24

thesidehustle

Up — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $10.49

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $20.69

devonpoll

Up — $0

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