Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Up 85%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$3.19
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $660.38 | $747.09 | +$86.71 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.7¢ | $261.04 | — | -$261.04 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $399.35 | $747.09 | +$347.74 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $779.68 | $414.91 | -$364.77 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.4¢ | $504.19 | — | -$504.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.4¢ | $275.49 | $414.91 | +$139.42 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $60.19 | — | -$58.81 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $60.77 | $90.81 | +$30.04 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 42.4¢ | $32.95 | $50.12 | +$17.17 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91.5¢ | $66.82 | $48.43 | -$18.39 | 66% 126396-65094 (191490) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $41.4 | $50 | +$8.6 | 62% 43966-26982 (70948) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $34.9 | $57.99 | +$23.1 | 58% 38135-27322 (65457) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $20.1 | $25 | +$4.9 | 54% 11081-9455 (20536) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 93.1¢ | $22.34 | $19.1 | -$3.24 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $14.94 | $15.09 | +$0.15 | 93% 23943-1796 (25739) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $9.1 | $15 | +$5.9 | 56% 8113-6259 (14372) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $16.8 | $11.95 | -$3.84 | 51% 20230-19367 (39597) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $6.1 | — | -$6.1 | 58% 51123-37260 (88383) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $7.99 | $7.15 | +$3.7 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
Invested
$660.38
Value
$747.09
PnL
+$86.71
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Both legs:
Invested
$779.68
Value
$414.91
PnL
-$364.77
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.19
Value
—
PnL
-$58.81
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$60.77
Value
$90.81
PnL
+$30.04
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Invested
$32.95
Value
$50.12
PnL
+$17.17
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$66.82
Value
$48.43
PnL
-$18.39
Record
66%
126396-65094 (191490)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$41.4
Value
$50
PnL
+$8.6
Record
62%
43966-26982 (70948)
Invested
$34.9
Value
$57.99
PnL
+$23.1
Record
58%
38135-27322 (65457)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$25
PnL
+$4.9
Record
54%
11081-9455 (20536)
Invested
$22.34
Value
$19.1
PnL
-$3.24
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$0.15
Record
93%
23943-1796 (25739)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.9
Record
56%
8113-6259 (14372)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$11.95
PnL
-$3.84
Record
51%
20230-19367 (39597)
Invested
$6.1
Value
—
PnL
-$6.1
Record
58%
51123-37260 (88383)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$3.7
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
Up — $90.81
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $50.12
asdaefef
Up — $48.43
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $50
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $57.99
thesidehustle
Up — $25
dvasdkasodk
Up — $19.1