Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 46%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$51.98
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $405.28 | $347.75 | -$57.53 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $269.69 | — | -$269.69 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39¢ | $135.59 | $347.75 | +$212.16 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $522.15 | $662.25 | +$140.1 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.9¢ | $363.6 | $662.25 | +$298.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.7¢ | $158.55 | — | -$158.55 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $199.98 | $202 | +$2.02 | 93% 23943-1796 (25739) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $36.87 | — | -$36.87 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $33.7 | — | -$33.7 | 56% 8113-6259 (14372) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 20.7¢ | $14.08 | $68.08 | +$54 | 46% 38341-45284 (83625) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $29.48 | $40 | +$10.52 | 58% 60765-44349 (105114) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 39.6¢ | $21.7 | $54.77 | +$33.07 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $33.57 | — | -$33.57 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $11.5 | — | -$11.5 | 56% 58323-44993 (103316) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $21.82 | $20 | -$1.82 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94.2¢ | $31.84 | $26 | -$5.84 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $15.7 | — | -$15.7 | 54% 11081-9455 (20536) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.6¢ | $4.99 | — | -$4.99 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $7.6 | — | -$7.6 | 66% 126396-65094 (191490) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20230-19367 (39597) |
Invested
$405.28
Value
$347.75
PnL
-$57.53
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Both legs:
Invested
$522.15
Value
$662.25
PnL
+$140.1
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Invested
$199.98
Value
$202
PnL
+$2.02
Record
93%
23943-1796 (25739)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$36.87
Value
—
PnL
-$36.87
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Invested
$33.7
Value
—
PnL
-$33.7
Record
56%
8113-6259 (14372)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$14.08
Value
$68.08
PnL
+$54
Record
46%
38341-45284 (83625)
Invested
$29.48
Value
$40
PnL
+$10.52
Record
58%
60765-44349 (105114)
Invested
$21.7
Value
$54.77
PnL
+$33.07
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$33.57
Value
—
PnL
-$33.57
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Invested
$11.5
Value
—
PnL
-$11.5
Record
56%
58323-44993 (103316)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$21.82
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.82
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$26
PnL
-$5.84
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
Invested
$15.7
Value
—
PnL
-$15.7
Record
54%
11081-9455 (20536)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
—
PnL
-$4.99
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
Invested
$7.6
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
66%
126396-65094 (191490)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20230-19367 (39597)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $202
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
Down — $68.08
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $40
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $54.77
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0