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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$179.82

Combined PnL

-$121.44

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares307

Combined PnL-$135.13

Up5 traders

Total Value$139.82

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$13.69

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$99.35	—	-$99.35	35% 18929-35926 (54855)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 90.2¢	$79.43	$88.1	+$8.67	55% 45345-37754 (83099)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 26¢	$50.69	$40	-$10.69	52% 7945-7473 (15418)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.3¢	$21.3	$40	+$18.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 26¢	$29.39	—	-$29.39
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$23.41	$22.5	-$0.59	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$18.54	—	-$18.54	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 90¢	$9.2	$10.22	+$1.02	51% 20217-19360 (39577)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 79¢	$7.11	$9	+$1.89	46% 38320-45258 (83578)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$9.2	—	-$9.2	56% 58298-44982 (103280)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$7.3	$10	+$2.7	54% 11065-9443 (20508)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$5.39	—	-$5.39	56% 8103-6239 (14342)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	64% 58676-33266 (91942)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	52% 90753-85289 (176042)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	66% 126346-65068 (191414)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$99.35

Value

—

PnL

-$99.35

Record

35%

18929-35926 (54855)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$79.43

Value

$88.1

PnL

+$8.67

Record

55%

45345-37754 (83099)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$50.69

Value

$40

PnL

-$10.69

Record

52%

7945-7473 (15418)

Both legs:

Up$21.353.3¢+$18.7

Down$29.3926¢-$29.39

Invested

$23.41

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$0.59

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$18.54

Value

—

PnL

-$18.54

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$1.02

Record

51%

20217-19360 (39577)

Invested

$7.11

Value

$9

PnL

+$1.89

Record

46%

38320-45258 (83578)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

—

PnL

-$9.2

Record

56%

58298-44982 (103280)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.7

Record

54%

11065-9443 (20508)

Invested

$5.39

Value

—

PnL

-$5.39

Record

56%

8103-6239 (14342)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

64%

58676-33266 (91942)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

52%

90753-85289 (176042)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

66%

126346-65068 (191414)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x225c58e4...647168

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793447400

Traders in this Market

Little-big

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $88.1

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

aaa221

Up — $22.5

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

devonpoll

Up — $10.22

pspspsps5

Up — $9

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

thesidehustle

Up — $10

wzbbb

Down — $0

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