Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
11
Up 55%
2 arb excluded
$721.1
$3.4
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 72.2Β’ | $405.81 | $401.36 | -$4.45 | 51% 7908-7454 (15362) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 26.7Β’ | $116.16 | β | -$116.16 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 72.2Β’ | $289.65 | $401.36 | +$111.71 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99Β’ | $131.18 | $132.5 | +$1.32 | 93% 23898-1792 (25690) |
![]() MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 76.5Β’ | $57.11 | $42.75 | -$14.36 | 55% 45212-37592 (82804) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 36.8Β’ | $24.39 | β | -$24.39 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 76.5Β’ | $32.72 | $42.75 | +$10.03 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 61.5Β’ | $34.2 | $43.93 | +$9.73 | 65% 125663-67274 (192937) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 60.8Β’ | $32.66 | $53.69 | +$21.03 | 64% 23872-13164 (37036) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 54.7Β’ | $22.15 | $30 | +$7.85 | 54% 11047-9434 (20481) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.3Β’ | $14.5 | β | -$14.5 | 58% 51093-37229 (88322) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 58.4Β’ | $13 | β | -$13 | 66% 126299-65048 (191347) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 46Β’ | $8.14 | β | -$8.14 | 57% 8090-6223 (14313) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 95.7Β’ | $11.36 | $11.86 | +$0.5 | 63% 52135-30979 (83114) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 45Β’ | $4.05 | β | -$4.05 | 35% 18921-35912 (54833) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 46Β’ | $2.3 | $5 | +$2.7 | 61% 95344-60180 (155524) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 66% 112317-58917 (171234) |
Invested
$405.81
Value
$401.36
PnL
-$4.45
Record
51%
7908-7454 (15362)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.18
Value
$132.5
PnL
+$1.32
Record
93%
23898-1792 (25690)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$57.11
Value
$42.75
PnL
-$14.36
Record
55%
45212-37592 (82804)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.2
Value
$43.93
PnL
+$9.73
Record
65%
125663-67274 (192937)
Invested
$32.66
Value
$53.69
PnL
+$21.03
Record
64%
23872-13164 (37036)
Invested
$22.15
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.85
Record
54%
11047-9434 (20481)
Invested
$14.5
Value
β
PnL
-$14.5
Record
58%
51093-37229 (88322)
Invested
$13
Value
β
PnL
-$13
Record
66%
126299-65048 (191347)
Invested
$8.14
Value
β
PnL
-$8.14
Record
57%
8090-6223 (14313)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$11.36
Value
$11.86
PnL
+$0.5
Record
63%
52135-30979 (83114)
Invested
$4.05
Value
β
PnL
-$4.05
Record
35%
18921-35912 (54833)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.7
Record
61%
95344-60180 (155524)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112317-58917 (171234)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $132.5

MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage β excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $43.93
aaa221
Up β $53.69
thesidehustle
Up β $30
PBot-6
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
CTRDown β $0
wzbbb
CTRDown β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
Up β $11.86