Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$146.22
-$72.14
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 44.4¢ | $76.45 | $52.22 | -$24.23 | 52% 7885-7424 (15309) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.4¢ | $60.2 | — | -$60.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $16.25 | $52.22 | +$35.97 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $73.26 | $74 | +$0.74 | 93% 23873-1792 (25665) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.5¢ | $10.53 | — | -$10.53 | 55% 45212-37590 (82802) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 96.2¢ | $11.54 | $12 | +$0.46 | 66% 126252-65031 (191283) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 62% 43934-26954 (70888) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $13.4 | — | -$13.4 | 64% 40270-23036 (63306) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 97.6¢ | $12.07 | $8 | -$4.07 | 61% 95305-60157 (155462) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 54% 11039-9419 (20458) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $24.89 | — | -$24.31 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.5¢ | $0.85 | — | -$0.85 | 46% 38281-45205 (83486) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.18 | — | -$1.18 | 49% 78145-81653 (159798) |
Invested
$76.45
Value
$52.22
PnL
-$24.23
Record
52%
7885-7424 (15309)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.26
Value
$74
PnL
+$0.74
Record
93%
23873-1792 (25665)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$10.53
Value
—
PnL
-$10.53
Record
55%
45212-37590 (82802)
Invested
$11.54
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.46
Record
66%
126252-65031 (191283)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
62%
43934-26954 (70888)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$13.4
Value
—
PnL
-$13.4
Record
64%
40270-23036 (63306)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$8
PnL
-$4.07
Record
61%
95305-60157 (155462)
Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
54%
11039-9419 (20458)
Invested
$24.89
Value
—
PnL
-$24.31
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.85
Value
—
PnL
-$0.85
Record
46%
38281-45205 (83486)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.18
Value
—
PnL
-$1.18
Record
49%
78145-81653 (159798)
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