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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$296.63

Combined PnL

-$132.49

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares315
Combined PnL-$214.6
Down8 traders
Total Value$170.98
Total Shares171
Combined PnL+$82.11
Up — 27%Down — 73%
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$94.66

Value

$125.65

PnL

+$30.99

Record

51%

7828-7386 (15214)

Both legs:

Down$37.3529.7¢+$88.3
Up$57.3123.6¢-$57.31
0X
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR
Up

Invested

$196.73

Value

—

PnL

-$196.73

Record

48%

23410-25728 (49138)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$50.02

Value

$64.21

PnL

+$19.26

Record

64%

23717-13072 (36789)

pspspsps5<$100
Down

Invested

$6.15

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$33.54

Record

46%

38235-45168 (83403)

TH
thesidehustleCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$17.87

Value

—

PnL

-$17.87

Record

54%

11016-9389 (20405)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$5.01

Value

$18.1

PnL

+$13.09

Record

61%

95227-60115 (155342)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$16.26

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$2.16

Record

65%

125540-67211 (192751)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$7.7

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$7.35

Record

66%

126157-64992 (191149)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$2.45

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$5.72

Record

52%

90624-85193 (175817)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$1.4

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$5.26

Record

56%

58238-44953 (103191)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

93%

23822-1789 (25611)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20177-19342 (39519)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x0d724837...a49aeb
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793414700

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.99
0X

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$196.73
AA

aaa221

Down — $64.21

+$19.26

pspspsps5

Down — $39.69

+$33.54
TH

thesidehustle

CTR

Up — $0

-$17.87
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $18.1

+$13.09
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $14.1

-$2.16
AS

asdaefef

Down — $15.05

+$7.35
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $8.17

+$5.72
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $6.66

+$5.26
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