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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 54%

Total Value

$256.55

Combined PnL

-$338.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares650

Combined PnL-$455.12

Up7 traders

Total Value$256.55

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$116.55

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 39.1¢	$398.21	—	-$398.21	51% 7743-7307 (15050)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 49.2¢	$94.92	$193	+$98.08	48% 23338-25669 (49007)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$24.75	$25	+$0.25	93% 23707-1785 (25492)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$19	—	-$19	55% 17960-14549 (32509)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 44.6¢	$7.16	$16.04	+$8.88	58% 51036-37181 (88217)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$5.34	—	-$5.34	61% 95112-60031 (155143)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06	63% 52043-30715 (82758)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 46¢	$5.06	$11	+$5.94	57% 7978-6132 (14110)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$34.59	—	-$24.4	64% 23528-12966 (36494)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 76¢	$7.6	$10	+$2.4	58% 60661-44284 (104945)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$2.52	—	-$2.52	66% 126030-64913 (190943)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$2.59	—	-$2.59	52% 90518-85062 (175580)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 34¢	$0.52	$1.52	+$1	58% 37996-27224 (65220)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 36¢	—	—	+$0	51% 20141-19302 (39443)

Invested

$398.21

Value

—

PnL

-$398.21

Record

51%

7743-7307 (15050)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$94.92

Value

$193

PnL

+$98.08

Record

48%

23338-25669 (49007)

Invested

$24.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

93%

23707-1785 (25492)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$19

Value

—

PnL

-$19

Record

55%

17960-14549 (32509)

Invested

$7.16

Value

$16.04

PnL

+$8.88

Record

58%

51036-37181 (88217)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$5.34

Value

—

PnL

-$5.34

Record

61%

95112-60031 (155143)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

—

PnL

-$3.06

Record

63%

52043-30715 (82758)

Invested

$5.06

Value

$11

PnL

+$5.94

Record

57%

7978-6132 (14110)

Invested

$34.59

Value

—

PnL

-$24.4

Record

64%

23528-12966 (36494)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.4

Record

58%

60661-44284 (104945)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

—

PnL

-$2.52

Record

66%

126030-64913 (190943)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

—

PnL

-$2.59

Record

52%

90518-85062 (175580)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

37996-27224 (65220)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20141-19302 (39443)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbed9494f...37a778

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793403300

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $193

hoodquant

Up — $25

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $0

PBot-6

Up — $16.04

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

wzbbb

Up — $11

aaa221

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $10

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