Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
10
Up 56%
1 arb excluded
$930.63
-$63.01
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.1Β’ | $589.44 | $673.46 | +$84.03 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 51.1Β’ | $344.45 | $673.46 | +$329.02 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 35.3Β’ | $244.99 | β | -$244.99 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 48.5Β’ | $81.68 | $168.28 | +$86.6 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.2Β’ | $24.13 | β | -$24.13 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 60Β’ | $33.56 | $34.12 | +$0.56 | 66% 126030-64913 (190943) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 66Β’ | $25.48 | β | -$25.48 | 61% 95112-60031 (155143) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 65.2Β’ | $36.28 | β | -$28.78 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 49.7Β’ | $16.02 | $32.25 | +$16.23 | 57% 7978-6132 (14110) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 66Β’ | $14 | β | -$14 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 30.3Β’ | $6.51 | $21.52 | +$15.01 | 49% 78059-81564 (159623) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 56.5Β’ | $278.69 | $1 | -$89.01 | 48% 23338-25669 (49007) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | β | β | +$0 | 51% 20141-19302 (39443) |
Invested
$589.44
Value
$673.46
PnL
+$84.03
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.68
Value
$168.28
PnL
+$86.6
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$24.13
Value
β
PnL
-$24.13
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$33.56
Value
$34.12
PnL
+$0.56
Record
66%
126030-64913 (190943)
Invested
$25.48
Value
β
PnL
-$25.48
Record
61%
95112-60031 (155143)
Invested
$36.28
Value
β
PnL
-$28.78
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
Invested
$16.02
Value
$32.25
PnL
+$16.23
Record
57%
7978-6132 (14110)
Invested
$14
Value
β
PnL
-$14
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.51
Value
$21.52
PnL
+$15.01
Record
49%
78059-81564 (159623)
Invested
$278.69
Value
$1
PnL
-$89.01
Record
48%
23338-25669 (49007)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20141-19302 (39443)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up β $168.28

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
Up β $34.12
asidjasiodja
CTRDown β $0
aaa221
CTRDown β $0
wzbbb
Up β $32.25
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown β $0

OhioRiskManagement
Up β $21.52
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Up β $1