Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$557.21
-$61.54
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $173.18 | $202.52 | +$29.34 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1.6¢ | $7.5 | — | -$7.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.8¢ | $165.68 | $202.52 | +$36.84 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.7¢ | $74.62 | — | -$74.62 | 48% 23338-25669 (49007) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97¢ | $139.03 | $143.33 | +$4.3 | 93% 23707-1785 (25492) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $87.52 | $89.3 | +$1.78 | 46% 38184-45085 (83269) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $40.73 | $58 | +$17.27 | 57% 7978-6132 (14110) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.71 | — | -$1.71 | 49% 78059-81564 (159623) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.6¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $41.98 | $42.01 | +$5.88 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $13 | $15.05 | +$2.05 | 66% 126030-64913 (190943) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.1¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 51% 20141-19302 (39443) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $6.79 | $7 | +$0.21 | 61% 95112-60031 (155143) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
Invested
$173.18
Value
$202.52
PnL
+$29.34
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.62
Value
—
PnL
-$74.62
Record
48%
23338-25669 (49007)
Invested
$139.03
Value
$143.33
PnL
+$4.3
Record
93%
23707-1785 (25492)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$87.52
Value
$89.3
PnL
+$1.78
Record
46%
38184-45085 (83269)
Invested
$40.73
Value
$58
PnL
+$17.27
Record
57%
7978-6132 (14110)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.71
Value
—
PnL
-$1.71
Record
49%
78059-81564 (159623)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$41.98
Value
$42.01
PnL
+$5.88
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
Invested
$13
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$2.05
Record
66%
126030-64913 (190943)
Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
51%
20141-19302 (39443)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.21
Record
61%
95112-60031 (155143)
Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $143.33
pspspsps5
Down — $89.3
wzbbb
Down — $58
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $42.01
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $15.05