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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$267.91

Combined PnL

-$134.81

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$166.23

Down8 traders

Total Value$166.86

Total Shares167

Combined PnL+$31.42

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$155.46	—	-$155.46	48% 23324-25663 (48987)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$110.63	$101.05	-$9.58	51% 7723-7285 (15008)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.3¢	$76.11	$101.05	+$24.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.9¢	$34.52	—	-$34.52
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$26.63	$28.32	+$1.69	66% 126008-64883 (190891)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 47¢	$22.56	$48	+$25.44	58% 37968-27204 (65172)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89.4¢	$19.5	$20.41	+$0.91	61% 95091-59995 (155086)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$17.55	$15.3	-$2.25	54% 10968-9354 (20322)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$16.66	$14	-$2.66	52% 90492-85022 (175514)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83¢	$14.87	$17.92	+$3.05	64% 23481-12947 (36428)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 87¢	$12.46	$12.9	+$0.44	64% 40191-22989 (63180)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 35.1¢	$10.77	—	-$10.77	55% 17960-14547 (32507)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 52¢	$5.2	$10	+$4.8	34% 18852-35845 (54697)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	—	—	+$0	51% 20126-19292 (39418)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$155.46

Value

—

PnL

-$155.46

Record

48%

23324-25663 (48987)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$110.63

Value

$101.05

PnL

-$9.58

Record

51%

7723-7285 (15008)

Both legs:

Down$76.1175.3¢+$24.94

Up$34.5219.9¢-$34.52

Invested

$26.63

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$1.69

Record

66%

126008-64883 (190891)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$22.56

Value

$48

PnL

+$25.44

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$20.41

PnL

+$0.91

Record

61%

95091-59995 (155086)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$17.55

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$2.25

Record

54%

10968-9354 (20322)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$16.66

Value

$14

PnL

-$2.66

Record

52%

90492-85022 (175514)

Invested

$14.87

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$3.05

Record

64%

23481-12947 (36428)

Invested

$12.46

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$0.44

Record

64%

40191-22989 (63180)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

—

PnL

-$10.77

Record

55%

17960-14547 (32507)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.8

Record

34%

18852-35845 (54697)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20126-19292 (39418)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x58dbd452...773cb5

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793398500

Traders in this Market

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Down — $28.32

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $48

asidjasiodja

Down — $20.41

thesidehustle

Down — $15.3

dvasdkasodk

Down — $14

aaa221

Down — $17.92

ohioism

Down — $12.9

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

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