Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$580.67
-$19.14
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 14.2¢ | $245.1 | $357.24 | +$112.15 | 57% 71009-54091 (125100) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.5¢ | $108.8 | $357.24 | +$248.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.2¢ | $136.3 | — | -$136.3 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $128.52 | $126.12 | -$2.4 | 51% 7681-7235 (14916) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $59.37 | $53.57 | -$2.8 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $26.47 | $20.85 | -$5.62 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $9.46 | — | -$9.46 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.8¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 49% 78011-81515 (159526) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $3.89 | $9.42 | +$5.53 | 58% 37915-27161 (65076) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $3.01 | $5.47 | +$2.46 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 93% 23585-1776 (25361) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $3.58 | — | -$3.58 | 63% 52008-30666 (82674) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112233-58692 (170925) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20108-19252 (39360) |
Invested
$245.1
Value
$357.24
PnL
+$112.15
Record
57%
71009-54091 (125100)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.52
Value
$126.12
PnL
-$2.4
Record
51%
7681-7235 (14916)
Invested
$59.37
Value
$53.57
PnL
-$2.8
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
Invested
$26.47
Value
$20.85
PnL
-$5.62
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
Invested
$9.46
Value
—
PnL
-$9.46
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
49%
78011-81515 (159526)
Invested
$3.89
Value
$9.42
PnL
+$5.53
Record
58%
37915-27161 (65076)
Invested
$3.01
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$2.46
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
93%
23585-1776 (25361)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
—
PnL
-$3.58
Record
63%
52008-30666 (82674)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112233-58692 (170925)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20108-19252 (39360)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $126.12
aaa221
Down — $53.57
asdaefef
Down — $20.85
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $9.42
dvasdkasodk
Down — $5.47
hoodquant
Down — $8
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0