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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 36%

Total Value

$396.31

Combined PnL

-$168.35

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$396.31

Total Shares396

Combined PnL+$63.11

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares903

Combined PnL-$231.46

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 58.6¢	$182.1	$206.16	+$24.06	51% 7681-7235 (14916)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 21.2¢	$161.75	—	-$161.75	57% 71009-54091 (125100)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$86.29	$87.16	+$0.87	93% 23585-1776 (25361)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$54	—	-$54	56% 58145-44880 (103025)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 53¢	$28.62	$53.99	+$25.37	58% 37915-27161 (65076)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 28¢	$14.11	—	-$14.11	61% 95030-59937 (154967)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$13.98	$12	-$1.98	66% 125935-64835 (190770)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 51¢	$10.71	$21	+$10.29	58% 60607-44251 (104858)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 95¢	$9.5	$10	+$0.5	74% 102600-36426 (139026)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 76¢	$4.56	$6	+$1.44	51% 20108-19252 (39360)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	52% 90443-84945 (175388)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80¢	$10.78	—	+$2.56	64% 23388-12902 (36290)

Invested

$182.1

Value

$206.16

PnL

+$24.06

Record

51%

7681-7235 (14916)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$161.75

Value

—

PnL

-$161.75

Record

57%

71009-54091 (125100)

Invested

$86.29

Value

$87.16

PnL

+$0.87

Record

93%

23585-1776 (25361)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$54

Value

—

PnL

-$54

Record

56%

58145-44880 (103025)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.62

Value

$53.99

PnL

+$25.37

Record

58%

37915-27161 (65076)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$14.11

Value

—

PnL

-$14.11

Record

61%

95030-59937 (154967)

Invested

$13.98

Value

$12

PnL

-$1.98

Record

66%

125935-64835 (190770)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$10.71

Value

$21

PnL

+$10.29

Record

58%

60607-44251 (104858)

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.5

Record

74%

102600-36426 (139026)

Invested

$4.56

Value

$6

PnL

+$1.44

Record

51%

20108-19252 (39360)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

52%

90443-84945 (175388)

Invested

$10.78

Value

—

PnL

+$2.56

Record

64%

23388-12902 (36290)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xce80ceb7...525914

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793387100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Up — $206.16

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $87.16

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $53.99

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $12

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $21

BoneOhio

Up — $10

devonpoll

Up — $6

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