Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
12
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$139.27
-$43.96
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $3.03 | β | -$3.03 | 49% 78011-81515 (159526) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 72.7Β’ | $83.19 | $81.14 | -$2.04 | 51% 7681-7235 (14916) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 72.7Β’ | $58.98 | $81.14 | +$22.17 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 56.5Β’ | $24.21 | β | -$24.21 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7Β’ | $32.98 | β | -$32.98 | 55% 17905-14498 (32403) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4Β’ | $2.72 | β | -$2.72 | 46% 38138-45037 (83175) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.8Β’ | $19.38 | β | -$19.38 | 58% 37915-27161 (65076) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 84.4Β’ | $23.76 | $26 | +$2.24 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $0.51 | β | -$0.51 | 59% 62290-43460 (105750) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86Β’ | $16.39 | $17.13 | +$0.74 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 37Β’ | $4.95 | $10 | +$5.05 | 54% 10935-9316 (20251) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 8Β’ | $1.8 | β | -$0.15 | 51% 20108-19252 (39360) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 42Β’ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | 56% 58145-44880 (103025) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 95.5Β’ | $12.77 | β | +$0.46 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 69Β’ | $7.59 | β | +$3.41 | 65% 125217-67029 (192246) |
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.03
Value
β
PnL
-$3.03
Record
49%
78011-81515 (159526)
Invested
$83.19
Value
$81.14
PnL
-$2.04
Record
51%
7681-7235 (14916)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.98
Value
β
PnL
-$32.98
Record
55%
17905-14498 (32403)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.72
Value
β
PnL
-$2.72
Record
46%
38138-45037 (83175)
Invested
$19.38
Value
β
PnL
-$19.38
Record
58%
37915-27161 (65076)
Invested
$23.76
Value
$26
PnL
+$2.24
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
Invested
$0.51
Value
β
PnL
-$0.51
Record
59%
62290-43460 (105750)
Invested
$16.39
Value
$17.13
PnL
+$0.74
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.05
Record
54%
10935-9316 (20251)
Invested
$1.8
Value
β
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
20108-19252 (39360)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
56%
58145-44880 (103025)
Invested
$12.77
Value
β
PnL
+$0.46
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
Invested
$7.59
Value
β
PnL
+$3.41
Record
65%
125217-67029 (192246)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market

OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp β $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp β $0

pspspsps5
CTRUp β $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp β $0
asidjasiodja
Down β $26
0x50f7
CTRUp β $0
asdaefef
Down β $17.13
thesidehustle
Down β $10
devonpoll
CTRUp β $0