Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 46%
2 arb excluded
$719.36
$39.7
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 15.8¢ | $255.4 | $126.01 | -$129.39 | 51% 7651-7211 (14862) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.8¢ | $200.7 | — | -$200.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.4¢ | $54.7 | $126.01 | +$71.31 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $295.02 | $298 | +$2.98 | 93% 23541-1774 (25315) |
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100 | Downavg 32.7¢ | $29.35 | $45.1 | +$15.75 | 61% 94986-59906 (154892) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.7¢ | $14.73 | $45.1 | +$30.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.7¢ | $14.62 | — | -$14.62 | |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $59.59 | $55.23 | -$4.36 | 54% 10935-9316 (20251) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $34.45 | — | -$34.45 | 55% 17859-14473 (32332) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 16.4¢ | $24.01 | $146.59 | +$122.58 | 57% 70965-54043 (125008) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $15.78 | — | -$15.78 | 63% 51987-30635 (82622) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $10.43 | — | -$10.43 | 58% 37890-27130 (65020) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.4¢ | $19.25 | — | -$19.25 | 52% 90403-84904 (175307) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.3¢ | $10.9 | — | -$10.9 | 66% 125885-64811 (190696) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $19.77 | $24.45 | +$4.68 | 64% 23325-12863 (36188) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $9.88 | $9.98 | +$0.1 | 59% 62273-43446 (105719) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $6.16 | $14 | +$7.84 | 57% 7914-6084 (13998) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 64% 40142-22964 (63106) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112214-58657 (170871) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20092-19247 (39339) |
Invested
$255.4
Value
$126.01
PnL
-$129.39
Record
51%
7651-7211 (14862)
Both legs:
Invested
$295.02
Value
$298
PnL
+$2.98
Record
93%
23541-1774 (25315)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$45.1
PnL
+$15.75
Record
61%
94986-59906 (154892)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.59
Value
$55.23
PnL
-$4.36
Record
54%
10935-9316 (20251)
Invested
$34.45
Value
—
PnL
-$34.45
Record
55%
17859-14473 (32332)
Invested
$24.01
Value
$146.59
PnL
+$122.58
Record
57%
70965-54043 (125008)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$15.78
Value
—
PnL
-$15.78
Record
63%
51987-30635 (82622)
Invested
$10.43
Value
—
PnL
-$10.43
Record
58%
37890-27130 (65020)
Invested
$19.25
Value
—
PnL
-$19.25
Record
52%
90403-84904 (175307)
Invested
$10.9
Value
—
PnL
-$10.9
Record
66%
125885-64811 (190696)
Invested
$19.77
Value
$24.45
PnL
+$4.68
Record
64%
23325-12863 (36188)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0.1
Record
59%
62273-43446 (105719)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$14
PnL
+$7.84
Record
57%
7914-6084 (13998)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
64%
40142-22964 (63106)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112214-58657 (170871)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20092-19247 (39339)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $298
asidjasiodja
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $55.23
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $146.59
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0