Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 62%
1 arb excluded
$506.01
$79.34
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $122.1 | $127.63 | +$5.53 | 51% 7651-7211 (14862) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.1¢ | $107.32 | $127.63 | +$20.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 3¢ | $14.78 | — | -$14.78 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 52¢ | $78 | $150 | +$72 | 34% 18828-35821 (54649) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $69.98 | $71 | +$1.02 | 93% 23541-1774 (25315) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $47.89 | $60 | +$12.11 | 64% 23325-12863 (36188) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $23.25 | $25 | +$1.75 | 74% 102568-36422 (138990) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $19.1 | $20 | +$0.9 | 54% 10935-9316 (20251) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $16.32 | — | -$16.32 | 57% 7914-6084 (13998) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $14.35 | $20.2 | +$5.85 | 55% 17859-14473 (32332) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $8.67 | $10.18 | +$1.51 | 66% 125885-64811 (190696) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $11.22 | $22 | +$10.78 | 58% 60586-44234 (104820) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $2.9 | — | -$2.9 | 51% 20092-19247 (39339) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 63% 51987-30635 (82622) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.7¢ | $3.83 | — | -$3.83 | 61% 94986-59906 (154892) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1.54 | — | -$1.54 | 52% 90403-84904 (175307) |
Invested
$122.1
Value
$127.63
PnL
+$5.53
Record
51%
7651-7211 (14862)
Both legs:
Invested
$78
Value
$150
PnL
+$72
Record
34%
18828-35821 (54649)
Invested
$69.98
Value
$71
PnL
+$1.02
Record
93%
23541-1774 (25315)
Invested
$47.89
Value
$60
PnL
+$12.11
Record
64%
23325-12863 (36188)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
74%
102568-36422 (138990)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.9
Record
54%
10935-9316 (20251)
Invested
$16.32
Value
—
PnL
-$16.32
Record
57%
7914-6084 (13998)
Invested
$14.35
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$5.85
Record
55%
17859-14473 (32332)
Invested
$8.67
Value
$10.18
PnL
+$1.51
Record
66%
125885-64811 (190696)
Invested
$11.22
Value
$22
PnL
+$10.78
Record
58%
60586-44234 (104820)
Invested
$2.9
Value
—
PnL
-$2.9
Record
51%
20092-19247 (39339)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
63%
51987-30635 (82622)
Invested
$3.83
Value
—
PnL
-$3.83
Record
61%
94986-59906 (154892)
Invested
$1.54
Value
—
PnL
-$1.54
Record
52%
90403-84904 (175307)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Down — $150
hoodquant
Down — $71
aaa221
Down — $60
BoneOhio
Down — $25
thesidehustle
Down — $20
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $20.2
asdaefef
Down — $10.18
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $22