Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
$36.32
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $778.96 | $852.12 | +$73.17 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.3¢ | $556.15 | $852.12 | +$295.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.6¢ | $222.81 | — | -$222.81 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $244.34 | $220 | -$24.34 | 51% 7617-7193 (14810) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.5¢ | $183.6 | $220 | +$36.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.8¢ | $60.74 | — | -$60.74 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.9¢ | $9.27 | — | -$9.27 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $33.2 | $64.27 | +$31.07 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $59.33 | $59.99 | +$3.86 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $52.5 | $40 | -$12.5 | 54% 10921-9310 (20231) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 97.4¢ | $43.49 | $44.67 | +$1.18 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $29.8 | $59.63 | +$29.83 | 57% 12662-9360 (22022) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $27.57 | — | -$27.57 | 58% 37856-27105 (64961) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $14 | $28 | +$14 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $12.35 | $15.11 | +$2.76 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 59% 62257-43437 (105694) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.45 | $5.44 | +$2.99 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 46% 38121-45024 (83145) |
Invested
$778.96
Value
$852.12
PnL
+$73.17
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.34
Value
$220
PnL
-$24.34
Record
51%
7617-7193 (14810)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.27
Value
—
PnL
-$9.27
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$33.2
Value
$64.27
PnL
+$31.07
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$59.33
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$3.86
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$52.5
Value
$40
PnL
-$12.5
Record
54%
10921-9310 (20231)
Invested
$43.49
Value
$44.67
PnL
+$1.18
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$29.8
Value
$59.63
PnL
+$29.83
Record
57%
12662-9360 (22022)
Invested
$27.57
Value
—
PnL
-$27.57
Record
58%
37856-27105 (64961)
Invested
$14
Value
$28
PnL
+$14
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$15.11
PnL
+$2.76
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
62257-43437 (105694)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$5.44
PnL
+$2.99
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
46%
38121-45024 (83145)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $64.27
aaa221
Down — $59.99
thesidehustle
Down — $40
hoodquant
Down — $44.67
wowitsamazing
Down — $59.63
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $28