Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$39.24
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 54.3¢ | $556.37 | $575.84 | +$19.47 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.3¢ | $312.74 | $575.84 | +$263.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.8¢ | $243.63 | — | -$243.63 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $296.15 | $284.14 | -$12.01 | 51% 7617-7193 (14810) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.4¢ | $157.34 | $284.14 | +$126.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.6¢ | $138.81 | — | -$138.81 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 99¢ | $115.61 | $116.78 | +$1.17 | 57% 7900-6063 (13963) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $116.7 | $109.57 | -$7.13 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $53.75 | $75 | +$21.25 | 56% 58095-44840 (102935) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $39.02 | $50.88 | +$11.86 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $17.67 | $26.77 | +$9.1 | 64% 40124-22950 (63074) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $18.75 | $25 | +$6.25 | 58% 60561-44221 (104782) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $23.75 | $25 | +$1.25 | 74% 102547-36416 (138963) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $11.22 | $22 | +$10.78 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $16.14 | $17.26 | +$1.12 | 63% 51950-30621 (82571) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $13.35 | $15.74 | +$2.39 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $10.16 | — | -$10.16 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $9.4 | $10.64 | +$1.24 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $7.93 | $11.53 | +$3.6 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $9.85 | $7.13 | -$2.72 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $10.2 | — | -$6.8 | 51% 20087-19234 (39321) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $3.13 | $3.19 | +$0.06 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $82.5 | — | -$82.5 | 55% 49717-39929 (89646) |
Invested
$556.37
Value
$575.84
PnL
+$19.47
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.15
Value
$284.14
PnL
-$12.01
Record
51%
7617-7193 (14810)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.61
Value
$116.78
PnL
+$1.17
Record
57%
7900-6063 (13963)
Invested
$116.7
Value
$109.57
PnL
-$7.13
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$53.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$21.25
Record
56%
58095-44840 (102935)
Invested
$39.02
Value
$50.88
PnL
+$11.86
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
ohioism<$100Invested
$17.67
Value
$26.77
PnL
+$9.1
Record
64%
40124-22950 (63074)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.25
Record
58%
60561-44221 (104782)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
74%
102547-36416 (138963)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.22
Value
$22
PnL
+$10.78
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$16.14
Value
$17.26
PnL
+$1.12
Record
63%
51950-30621 (82571)
Invested
$13.35
Value
$15.74
PnL
+$2.39
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$10.16
Value
—
PnL
-$10.16
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$10.64
PnL
+$1.24
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$11.53
PnL
+$3.6
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.85
Value
$7.13
PnL
-$2.72
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
51%
20087-19234 (39321)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$0.06
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$82.5
Value
—
PnL
-$82.5
Record
55%
49717-39929 (89646)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Down — $116.78
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $109.57
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $75
aaa221
Down — $50.88
ohioism
Down — $26.77
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $25
BoneOhio
Down — $25
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $22