Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Down 22%
2 arb excluded
$591.29
-$564.64
Smart Money Signal
2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 44.3¢ | $595.18 | — | -$595.18 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $233.3 | $317.65 | +$84.35 | 51% 7617-7193 (14810) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.6¢ | $173.34 | $317.65 | +$144.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.4¢ | $59.96 | — | -$59.96 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $77.65 | $67.72 | -$9.93 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $36.6 | — | -$36.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.6¢ | $41.05 | $67.72 | +$26.67 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $59.4 | $67.84 | +$8.44 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $23.67 | $32.31 | +$8.64 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $35.58 | $45.6 | +$10.02 | 46% 38121-45024 (83145) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 61.4¢ | $32.06 | $22.34 | +$0.22 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $16.45 | $16.29 | -$0.16 | 61% 94946-59871 (154817) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $10.75 | $11 | +$0.25 | 66% 125851-64777 (190628) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $6.2 | $10.33 | +$4.13 | 51% 20087-19234 (39321) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $0.16 | $0.21 | +$0.05 | 74% 102547-36416 (138963) |
Invested
$595.18
Value
—
PnL
-$595.18
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Invested
$233.3
Value
$317.65
PnL
+$84.35
Record
51%
7617-7193 (14810)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.65
Value
$67.72
PnL
-$9.93
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$59.4
Value
$67.84
PnL
+$8.44
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$23.67
Value
$32.31
PnL
+$8.64
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$35.58
Value
$45.6
PnL
+$10.02
Record
46%
38121-45024 (83145)
Invested
$32.06
Value
$22.34
PnL
+$0.22
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$16.29
PnL
-$0.16
Record
61%
94946-59871 (154817)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.25
Record
66%
125851-64777 (190628)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$10.33
PnL
+$4.13
Record
51%
20087-19234 (39321)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.05
Record
74%
102547-36416 (138963)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $67.84
MayorMamdani
Up — $32.31
pspspsps5
Up — $45.6
aaa221
Up — $22.34
asidjasiodja
Up — $16.29
asdaefef
Up — $11
devonpoll
Up — $10.33