Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Up 79%
1 arb excluded
$376.24
-$23.74
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.1¢ | $111.41 | $134.89 | +$23.49 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.5¢ | $47.87 | — | -$47.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.1¢ | $63.54 | $134.89 | +$71.36 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $87.12 | $88 | +$0.88 | 93% 23467-1770 (25237) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $40.56 | — | -$40.56 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $51.66 | — | -$51.66 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $24 | $40 | +$16 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 33.8¢ | $10.8 | $32 | +$21.2 | 49% 77987-81500 (159487) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 34% 18806-35806 (54612) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 30.6¢ | $5.35 | $16.22 | +$10.87 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $11.26 | $26.51 | +$15.25 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $5.88 | $6 | +$0.12 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $4.91 | $7.19 | +$2.28 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $3.35 | $5.08 | +$1.73 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $5.9 | $10.35 | +$4.45 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $5 | +$1.85 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $5 | +$2.65 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
Invested
$111.41
Value
$134.89
PnL
+$23.49
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.12
Value
$88
PnL
+$0.88
Record
93%
23467-1770 (25237)
Invested
$40.56
Value
—
PnL
-$40.56
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
Invested
$51.66
Value
—
PnL
-$51.66
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Invested
$24
Value
$40
PnL
+$16
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$32
PnL
+$21.2
Record
49%
77987-81500 (159487)
Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
34%
18806-35806 (54612)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$16.22
PnL
+$10.87
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$26.51
PnL
+$15.25
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$7.19
PnL
+$2.28
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$1.73
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$4.45
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.85
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.65
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $88
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $40
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $32
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
Up — $16.22
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $26.51
asdaefef
Up — $6