Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 67%
4 arb excluded
$861.65
-$370.76
Smart Money Signal
8 of 14 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 45¢ | $423.7 | — | -$423.7 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $331.98 | $295.75 | -$36.23 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.4¢ | $178.55 | $295.75 | +$117.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40¢ | $153.43 | — | -$153.43 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $203.66 | $166.92 | -$36.74 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.2¢ | $103.59 | — | -$103.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60¢ | $100.07 | $166.92 | +$66.85 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $81.6 | $64.79 | -$16.82 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 83¢ | $53.78 | $64.79 | +$11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.8¢ | $27.82 | — | -$27.82 | |
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $44.73 | $47.13 | +$2.4 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.8¢ | $17.79 | $47.13 | +$29.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $26.94 | — | -$26.94 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $63.7 | $159.77 | +$96.07 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.2¢ | $30.45 | — | -$30.45 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $33.28 | $33.32 | +$0.04 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $22.85 | $50.13 | +$27.28 | 58% 60547-44207 (104754) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 92.6¢ | $39.74 | $42.91 | +$3.17 | 74% 102458-36400 (138858) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $21.2 | — | -$21.2 | 64% 40110-22937 (63047) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.8¢ | $8.08 | — | -$8.08 | 62% 43835-26840 (70675) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $3.98 | — | -$3.98 | 63% 51921-30603 (82524) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.3¢ | $6.63 | — | -$6.63 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $3.63 | — | -$3.63 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $0.54 | $0.93 | +$0.39 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
Invested
$423.7
Value
—
PnL
-$423.7
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Invested
$331.98
Value
$295.75
PnL
-$36.23
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Both legs:
Invested
$203.66
Value
$166.92
PnL
-$36.74
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.6
Value
$64.79
PnL
-$16.82
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
Both legs:
Invested
$44.73
Value
$47.13
PnL
+$2.4
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.7
Value
$159.77
PnL
+$96.07
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
Invested
$30.45
Value
—
PnL
-$30.45
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
Invested
$33.28
Value
$33.32
PnL
+$0.04
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$50.13
PnL
+$27.28
Record
58%
60547-44207 (104754)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$39.74
Value
$42.91
PnL
+$3.17
Record
74%
102458-36400 (138858)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$21.2
Value
—
PnL
-$21.2
Record
64%
40110-22937 (63047)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.08
Value
—
PnL
-$8.08
Record
62%
43835-26840 (70675)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$3.98
Value
—
PnL
-$3.98
Record
63%
51921-30603 (82524)
Invested
$6.63
Value
—
PnL
-$6.63
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
Invested
$3.63
Value
—
PnL
-$3.63
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.93
PnL
+$0.39
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asidjasiodja
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $159.77
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
asdaefef
Up — $33.32
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $50.13
BoneOhio
Up — $42.91