Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$361.74
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 79.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$71.81 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $520.05 | $660 | +$139.95 | 48% 23276-25616 (48892) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $240.88 | $245 | +$4.12 | 93% 23467-1770 (25237) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $164.14 | $235.09 | +$70.95 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $109.86 | $118.4 | +$8.53 | 54% 10895-9292 (20187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.1¢ | $87.69 | $118.4 | +$30.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.1¢ | $22.17 | — | -$22.17 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51.6¢ | $64.5 | $125 | +$60.5 | 34% 18806-35806 (54612) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $34.46 | — | -$34.46 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $42.71 | $47.06 | +$4.35 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $50 | $52.65 | +$2.65 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $26.95 | $46 | +$19.05 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 91.8¢ | $42.44 | $46.24 | +$3.8 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $12.28 | $22.26 | +$9.98 | 74% 102458-36400 (138858) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $9.41 | $16.95 | +$7.54 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $11.85 | $10.69 | -$1.16 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $11.06 | $12.64 | +$1.58 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $7.96 | $7 | -$0.96 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $11.1 | $15 | +$3.9 | 64% 40110-22937 (63047) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $1.62 | — | -$1.62 | 55% 50491-41087 (91578) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.25 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
Invested
$1,193.33
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$71.81
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Invested
$520.05
Value
$660
PnL
+$139.95
Record
48%
23276-25616 (48892)
Invested
$240.88
Value
$245
PnL
+$4.12
Record
93%
23467-1770 (25237)
Invested
$164.14
Value
$235.09
PnL
+$70.95
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
Invested
$109.86
Value
$118.4
PnL
+$8.53
Record
54%
10895-9292 (20187)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.5
Value
$125
PnL
+$60.5
Record
34%
18806-35806 (54612)
Invested
$34.46
Value
—
PnL
-$34.46
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Invested
$42.71
Value
$47.06
PnL
+$4.35
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Invested
$50
Value
$52.65
PnL
+$2.65
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
Invested
$26.95
Value
$46
PnL
+$19.05
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$42.44
Value
$46.24
PnL
+$3.8
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$12.28
Value
$22.26
PnL
+$9.98
Record
74%
102458-36400 (138858)
Invested
$9.41
Value
$16.95
PnL
+$7.54
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
Invested
$11.85
Value
$10.69
PnL
-$1.16
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$12.64
PnL
+$1.58
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
Invested
$7.96
Value
$7
PnL
-$0.96
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
ohioism<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.9
Record
64%
40110-22937 (63047)
Invested
$1.62
Value
—
PnL
-$1.62
Record
55%
50491-41087 (91578)
Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.3K
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $660
hoodquant
Down — $245
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $235.09
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Down — $125
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $47.06
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $52.65
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $46