Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 85%
1 arb excluded
$602.02
-$41.17
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $147.14 | $185.5 | +$38.36 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.9¢ | $82.8 | — | -$82.8 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $78.08 | $88.64 | +$10.56 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.4¢ | $59.73 | $88.64 | +$28.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.1¢ | $18.35 | — | -$18.35 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $81.54 | $82.36 | +$0.82 | 93% 23467-1770 (25237) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $55.25 | $51.12 | -$4.13 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $45.15 | $45.08 | -$0.07 | 54% 10895-9292 (20187) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $26.6 | $52.08 | +$25.48 | 64% 40110-22937 (63047) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $35.89 | — | -$35.89 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $5.09 | $5.29 | +$0.2 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $27.18 | $30 | +$2.82 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $20.77 | $20.15 | -$0.62 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 54.3¢ | $10.9 | $10.55 | -$0.35 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $11.05 | $21.25 | +$10.2 | 74% 102458-36400 (138858) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $10 | +$4.8 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
Invested
$147.14
Value
$185.5
PnL
+$38.36
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
Invested
$82.8
Value
—
PnL
-$82.8
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Invested
$78.08
Value
$88.64
PnL
+$10.56
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.54
Value
$82.36
PnL
+$0.82
Record
93%
23467-1770 (25237)
Invested
$55.25
Value
$51.12
PnL
-$4.13
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
Invested
$45.15
Value
$45.08
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
10895-9292 (20187)
ohioism<$100Invested
$26.6
Value
$52.08
PnL
+$25.48
Record
64%
40110-22937 (63047)
Invested
$35.89
Value
—
PnL
-$35.89
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$0.2
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$27.18
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.82
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$20.15
PnL
-$0.62
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$10.55
PnL
-$0.35
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$11.05
Value
$21.25
PnL
+$10.2
Record
74%
102458-36400 (138858)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.8
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $185.5
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $82.36
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $51.12
thesidehustle
Down — $45.08
ohioism
Down — $52.08
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $5.29
aaa221
Down — $30