Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 73%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$318.27
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 41.5¢ | $167.87 | $226.72 | +$58.86 | 51% 7567-7131 (14698) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.5¢ | $131.17 | — | -$131.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 16.2¢ | $36.69 | $226.72 | +$190.03 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $301.85 | $304.95 | +$3.1 | 93% 23431-1770 (25201) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 10.1¢ | $27.53 | $272.78 | +$245.24 | 57% 70744-53860 (124604) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $5.83 | $26 | +$20.17 | 61% 94870-59807 (154677) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 2.8¢ | $4.05 | $142.36 | +$138.31 | 59% 62228-43400 (105628) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $112.95 | $102 | -$10.95 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 5.5¢ | $4.42 | $66.99 | +$62.57 | 55% 44884-37341 (82225) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 5.5¢ | $3.66 | $66.99 | +$63.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1.8¢ | $0.76 | — | -$0.76 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 79.6¢ | $58.24 | — | -$58.24 | 64% 23134-12762 (35896) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.6¢ | $28.85 | — | -$28.85 | 55% 17763-14385 (32148) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.34 | $13.5 | +$12.16 | 52% 90287-84781 (175068) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $8.37 | — | -$8.37 | 66% 112148-58563 (170711) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $10 | +$4.7 | 57% 7871-6039 (13910) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $1.17 | $2.17 | +$1 | 56% 58058-44813 (102871) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20069-19215 (39284) |
Invested
$167.87
Value
$226.72
PnL
+$58.86
Record
51%
7567-7131 (14698)
Both legs:
Invested
$301.85
Value
$304.95
PnL
+$3.1
Record
93%
23431-1770 (25201)
Invested
$27.53
Value
$272.78
PnL
+$245.24
Record
57%
70744-53860 (124604)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$26
PnL
+$20.17
Record
61%
94870-59807 (154677)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$142.36
PnL
+$138.31
Record
59%
62228-43400 (105628)
Invested
$112.95
Value
$102
PnL
-$10.95
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$4.42
Value
$66.99
PnL
+$62.57
Record
55%
44884-37341 (82225)
Both legs:
Invested
$58.24
Value
—
PnL
-$58.24
Record
64%
23134-12762 (35896)
Invested
$28.85
Value
—
PnL
-$28.85
Record
55%
17763-14385 (32148)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$12.16
Record
52%
90287-84781 (175068)
Invested
$8.37
Value
—
PnL
-$8.37
Record
66%
112148-58563 (170711)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.7
Record
57%
7871-6039 (13910)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
58058-44813 (102871)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20069-19215 (39284)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $304.95
uninformedfloww
Down — $272.78
asidjasiodja
Down — $26
0x50f7
Down — $142.36
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $102
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $13.5