Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$193.45
-$16.04
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $162.92 | $163.69 | +$0.77 | 51% 7530-7094 (14624) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.1¢ | $34.78 | — | -$34.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.3¢ | $128.14 | $163.69 | +$35.55 | |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.9¢ | $6.05 | — | -$6.05 | 55% 44849-37309 (82158) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $12.75 | — | -$12.75 | 55% 17762-14385 (32147) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $14.44 | $19.64 | +$5.2 | 64% 23076-12710 (35786) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $4.51 | — | -$4.51 | 61% 94821-59772 (154593) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $5 | +$1.25 | 63% 51856-30563 (82419) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $4.3 | $5.12 | +$0.82 | 66% 125490-64588 (190078) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20058-19208 (39266) |
Invested
$162.92
Value
$163.69
PnL
+$0.77
Record
51%
7530-7094 (14624)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.05
Value
—
PnL
-$6.05
Record
55%
44849-37309 (82158)
Invested
$12.75
Value
—
PnL
-$12.75
Record
55%
17762-14385 (32147)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$19.64
PnL
+$5.2
Record
64%
23076-12710 (35786)
Invested
$4.51
Value
—
PnL
-$4.51
Record
61%
94821-59772 (154593)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.25
Record
63%
51856-30563 (82419)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.82
Record
66%
125490-64588 (190078)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20058-19208 (39266)
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