Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 63%
$55.4
-$94.55
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $80.57 | — | -$80.57 | 51% 7530-7094 (14624) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.3¢ | $24 | — | -$24 | 55% 17762-14385 (32147) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 72.8¢ | $33.36 | $18.79 | +$1.76 | 64% 23076-12710 (35786) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $17.57 | $29.96 | +$12.39 | 58% 60512-44183 (104695) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.52 | $6.65 | +$0.13 | 93% 23399-1767 (25166) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 51% 20058-19208 (39266) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 61% 94821-59772 (154593) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.1¢ | $0.82 | — | -$0.82 | 55% 44849-37309 (82158) |
Invested
$80.57
Value
—
PnL
-$80.57
Record
51%
7530-7094 (14624)
Invested
$24
Value
—
PnL
-$24
Record
55%
17762-14385 (32147)
Invested
$33.36
Value
$18.79
PnL
+$1.76
Record
64%
23076-12710 (35786)
Invested
$17.57
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$12.39
Record
58%
60512-44183 (104695)
Invested
$6.52
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.13
Record
93%
23399-1767 (25166)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
51%
20058-19208 (39266)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
61%
94821-59772 (154593)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.82
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
55%
44849-37309 (82158)
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