Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Up 69%
$339.65
-$96.67
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR | Upavg 65.9¢ | $102.1 | — | -$102.1 | 55% 17762-14385 (32147) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 40.6¢ | $64.33 | — | -$64.33 | 51% 7530-7094 (14624) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.6¢ | $29.67 | — | -$29.67 | 68% 99316-47652 (146968) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 45.6¢ | $71.72 | $157.26 | +$85.54 | 48% 23258-25567 (48825) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 36¢ | $49.6 | $137.97 | +$88.37 | 58% 12643-9342 (21985) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 54.2¢ | $19.33 | — | -$19.33 | 65% 125137-66970 (192107) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $19.59 | — | -$19.59 | 57% 7855-6024 (13879) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.4¢ | $18.37 | — | -$18.37 | 61% 94821-59772 (154593) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 55% 44849-37309 (82158) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $9.15 | — | -$9.15 | 58% 60512-44183 (104695) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $9.96 | $12 | +$2.04 | 64% 23076-12710 (35786) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.4¢ | $6.85 | — | -$6.85 | 59% 62205-43384 (105589) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $6.7 | — | -$6.7 | 66% 125490-64588 (190078) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $11.55 | $22.43 | +$10.88 | 56% 58027-44801 (102828) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $5.51 | — | -$5.51 | 52% 90236-84735 (174971) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 66% 112118-58522 (170640) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20058-19208 (39266) |
Invested
$102.1
Value
—
PnL
-$102.1
Record
55%
17762-14385 (32147)
Invested
$64.33
Value
—
PnL
-$64.33
Record
51%
7530-7094 (14624)
Invested
$29.67
Value
—
PnL
-$29.67
Record
68%
99316-47652 (146968)
Invested
$71.72
Value
$157.26
PnL
+$85.54
Record
48%
23258-25567 (48825)
wowitsamazingInvested
$49.6
Value
$137.97
PnL
+$88.37
Record
58%
12643-9342 (21985)
Invested
$19.33
Value
—
PnL
-$19.33
Record
65%
125137-66970 (192107)
Invested
$19.59
Value
—
PnL
-$19.59
Record
57%
7855-6024 (13879)
Invested
$18.37
Value
—
PnL
-$18.37
Record
61%
94821-59772 (154593)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
44849-37309 (82158)
Invested
$9.15
Value
—
PnL
-$9.15
Record
58%
60512-44183 (104695)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.04
Record
64%
23076-12710 (35786)
Invested
$6.85
Value
—
PnL
-$6.85
Record
59%
62205-43384 (105589)
Invested
$6.7
Value
—
PnL
-$6.7
Record
66%
125490-64588 (190078)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$22.43
PnL
+$10.88
Record
56%
58027-44801 (102828)
Invested
$5.51
Value
—
PnL
-$5.51
Record
52%
90236-84735 (174971)
Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
66%
112118-58522 (170640)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20058-19208 (39266)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $157.26
wowitsamazing
Down — $137.97
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $10
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0