Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$720.18
-$88.55
Smart Money Signal
10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $267.4 | $230.85 | -$36.55 | 51% 7530-7094 (14624) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Downavg 43.2¢ | $111.48 | — | -$111.48 | 48% 23258-25567 (48825) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $88.73 | $93.57 | +$4.84 | 68% 99316-47652 (146968) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55¢ | $51.45 | $93.57 | +$42.12 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.5¢ | $37.28 | — | -$37.28 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 71¢ | $71.33 | $100.47 | +$29.14 | 58% 60512-44183 (104695) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 56.2¢ | $56.39 | $100.26 | +$43.87 | 56% 58027-44801 (102828) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $39.13 | $60.18 | +$21.05 | 64% 40076-22914 (62990) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $8.25 | — | -$8.25 | 59% 62205-43384 (105589) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.1¢ | $44.94 | $45.79 | +$0.85 | 93% 23399-1767 (25166) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $13.49 | $18.96 | +$5.47 | 61% 94821-59772 (154593) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $34.6 | $37.86 | +$3.26 | 55% 17762-14385 (32147) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $32.3 | — | -$32.3 | 64% 23076-12710 (35786) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $15.23 | — | -$15.23 | 55% 44849-37309 (82158) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $7.6 | $10.27 | +$2.67 | 51% 20058-19208 (39266) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $6.3 | $15.37 | +$9.07 | 65% 125137-66970 (192107) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $4.62 | $6.6 | +$1.98 | 66% 125490-64588 (190078) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 52% 90236-84735 (174971) |
Invested
$267.4
Value
$230.85
PnL
-$36.55
Record
51%
7530-7094 (14624)
Invested
$111.48
Value
—
PnL
-$111.48
Record
48%
23258-25567 (48825)
Invested
$88.73
Value
$93.57
PnL
+$4.84
Record
68%
99316-47652 (146968)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.33
Value
$100.47
PnL
+$29.14
Record
58%
60512-44183 (104695)
Invested
$56.39
Value
$100.26
PnL
+$43.87
Record
56%
58027-44801 (102828)
ohioism<$100Invested
$39.13
Value
$60.18
PnL
+$21.05
Record
64%
40076-22914 (62990)
Invested
$8.25
Value
—
PnL
-$8.25
Record
59%
62205-43384 (105589)
Invested
$44.94
Value
$45.79
PnL
+$0.85
Record
93%
23399-1767 (25166)
Invested
$13.49
Value
$18.96
PnL
+$5.47
Record
61%
94821-59772 (154593)
Invested
$34.6
Value
$37.86
PnL
+$3.26
Record
55%
17762-14385 (32147)
Invested
$32.3
Value
—
PnL
-$32.3
Record
64%
23076-12710 (35786)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$15.23
Value
—
PnL
-$15.23
Record
55%
44849-37309 (82158)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$10.27
PnL
+$2.67
Record
51%
20058-19208 (39266)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$15.37
PnL
+$9.07
Record
65%
125137-66970 (192107)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$1.98
Record
66%
125490-64588 (190078)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
52%
90236-84735 (174971)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Up — $230.85
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $100.47
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $100.26
ohioism
Up — $60.18
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $45.79
asidjasiodja
Up — $18.96
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $37.86