Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$223.67
-$53.13
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $139.99 | $123.02 | -$16.97 | 52% 7510-7071 (14581) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.1¢ | $97.31 | $123.02 | +$25.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.9¢ | $42.68 | — | -$42.68 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $75.24 | $76 | +$0.76 | 93% 23362-1766 (25128) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.1¢ | $34.09 | — | -$34.09 | 54% 10837-9261 (20098) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $22.29 | $19 | -$3.29 | 66% 125488-64588 (190076) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.1¢ | $3.71 | — | -$3.71 | 55% 44823-37286 (82109) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $1.62 | — | -$1.62 | 59% 62201-43367 (105568) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $4.35 | $5.65 | +$1.3 | 64% 23032-12691 (35723) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $3.48 | — | -$3.48 | 52% 90207-84703 (174910) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.9¢ | $4.62 | — | -$4.62 | 61% 94795-59739 (154534) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $4.33 | — | -$4.33 | 63% 51837-30554 (82391) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112105-58496 (170601) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20047-19201 (39248) |
Invested
$139.99
Value
$123.02
PnL
-$16.97
Record
52%
7510-7071 (14581)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.24
Value
$76
PnL
+$0.76
Record
93%
23362-1766 (25128)
Invested
$34.09
Value
—
PnL
-$34.09
Record
54%
10837-9261 (20098)
Invested
$22.29
Value
$19
PnL
-$3.29
Record
66%
125488-64588 (190076)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.71
Value
—
PnL
-$3.71
Record
55%
44823-37286 (82109)
Invested
$1.62
Value
—
PnL
-$1.62
Record
59%
62201-43367 (105568)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$1.3
Record
64%
23032-12691 (35723)
Invested
$3.48
Value
—
PnL
-$3.48
Record
52%
90207-84703 (174910)
Invested
$4.62
Value
—
PnL
-$4.62
Record
61%
94795-59739 (154534)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$4.33
Value
—
PnL
-$4.33
Record
63%
51837-30554 (82391)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112105-58496 (170601)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20047-19201 (39248)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.