Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$342.72
$66.49
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $119.45 | $128.36 | +$8.91 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41¢ | $58.19 | — | -$58.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.7¢ | $61.26 | $128.36 | +$67.1 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 42.6¢ | $51.52 | $121 | +$69.48 | 34% 18763-35765 (54528) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.8¢ | $6.72 | — | -$6.72 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.8¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94.4¢ | $42.96 | $34.22 | -$8.74 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $22.74 | $22 | -$0.74 | 54% 10837-9261 (20098) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $20 | +$0.2 | 65% 125073-66927 (192000) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $3.6 | — | +$3.5 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $5.16 | $12 | +$6.84 | 57% 7817-5997 (13814) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112081-58477 (170558) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $3.55 | $5.14 | +$1.59 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $12.43 | — | +$2.58 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
Invested
$119.45
Value
$128.36
PnL
+$8.91
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.52
Value
$121
PnL
+$69.48
Record
34%
18763-35765 (54528)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.72
Value
—
PnL
-$6.72
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Invested
$42.96
Value
$34.22
PnL
-$8.74
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$22.74
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.74
Record
54%
10837-9261 (20098)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.2
Record
65%
125073-66927 (192000)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
+$3.5
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.84
Record
57%
7817-5997 (13814)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112081-58477 (170558)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$5.14
PnL
+$1.59
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
Invested
$12.43
Value
—
PnL
+$2.58
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
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