Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 55%
1 arb excluded
$185.5
-$9.44
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $67.77 | $95.56 | +$27.79 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.3¢ | $60.53 | $95.56 | +$35.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6.3¢ | $7.24 | — | -$7.24 | |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $21.18 | $30 | +$8.82 | 54% 10837-9261 (20098) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $26.44 | $29.87 | +$3.43 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $9.22 | $11 | +$1.78 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $10.47 | $11.38 | +$0.91 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $8.15 | — | -$8.15 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.6¢ | $15.98 | — | -$14.1 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $4.69 | $7 | +$2.31 | 65% 125073-66927 (192000) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.2¢ | $2.89 | — | +$4.17 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.09 | — | -$0.09 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112081-58477 (170558) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $0.46 | $0.69 | +$0.23 | 56% 57982-44777 (102759) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.5¢ | $8.7 | — | -$8.7 | 57% 70731-53842 (124573) |
Invested
$67.77
Value
$95.56
PnL
+$27.79
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.18
Value
$30
PnL
+$8.82
Record
54%
10837-9261 (20098)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$29.87
PnL
+$3.43
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.22
Value
$11
PnL
+$1.78
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
Invested
$10.47
Value
$11.38
PnL
+$0.91
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.15
Value
—
PnL
-$8.15
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Invested
$15.98
Value
—
PnL
-$14.1
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
$4.69
Value
$7
PnL
+$2.31
Record
65%
125073-66927 (192000)
Invested
$2.89
Value
—
PnL
+$4.17
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
Invested
$0.09
Value
—
PnL
-$0.09
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112081-58477 (170558)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
57982-44777 (102759)
Invested
$8.7
Value
—
PnL
-$8.7
Record
57%
70731-53842 (124573)
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