Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Down 71%
$73.45
$11.36
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $37.86 | $55.6 | +$17.74 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $17.1 | $17.85 | +$10.55 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $6.6 | — | -$6.6 | 57% 7817-5997 (13814) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $5.27 | — | -$5.27 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $4.1 | — | -$4.1 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $13.54 | — | +$0.34 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
Invested
$37.86
Value
$55.6
PnL
+$17.74
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$17.1
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$10.55
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Invested
$6.6
Value
—
PnL
-$6.6
Record
57%
7817-5997 (13814)
Invested
$5.27
Value
—
PnL
-$5.27
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
—
PnL
-$4.1
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$13.54
Value
—
PnL
+$0.34
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
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