Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
8
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$142.45
-$51.41
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.2Β’ | $3.84 | β | -$3.84 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 96Β’ | $86.4 | $80 | -$9.6 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 96Β’ | $86.4 | β | -$86.4 | |
| β Up leg | Up | $80 | $80 | +$76.8 | |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 36Β’ | $54 | β | -$54 | 34% 18763-35765 (54528) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96Β’ | $28.8 | $30 | +$1.2 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 97Β’ | $12.57 | $12.96 | +$0.39 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 53Β’ | $10.68 | $19.49 | +$8.81 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 16Β’ | $1.36 | β | -$1.36 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 41Β’ | $2.46 | β | -$2.46 | 56% 57982-44777 (102759) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.15 | β | -$0.15 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
Invested
$3.84
Value
β
PnL
-$3.84
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Invested
$86.4
Value
$80
PnL
-$9.6
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
Both legs:
Invested
$54
Value
β
PnL
-$54
Record
34%
18763-35765 (54528)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$28.8
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.2
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
Invested
$12.57
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$0.39
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
$10.68
Value
$19.49
PnL
+$8.81
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Invested
$1.36
Value
β
PnL
-$1.36
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$2.46
Value
β
PnL
-$2.46
Record
56%
57982-44777 (102759)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
β
PnL
-$0.15
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
CTRDown β $0
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Little-big
CTRDown β $0

MayorMamdani
Up β $30
aaa221
Up β $12.96
ply-pm2
Up β $19.49
asidjasiodja
CTRDown β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown β $0

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0