Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$189.28
-$12.4
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 17.3¢ | $90.34 | $120 | +$29.66 | 51% 7452-7030 (14482) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.3¢ | $45.94 | — | -$45.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $44.4 | $120 | +$75.6 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $37.78 | $34.4 | -$3.37 | 65% 124927-66830 (191757) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.7¢ | $8.75 | — | -$8.75 | 55% 44783-37243 (82026) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $13.62 | $12 | -$1.62 | 61% 94725-59677 (154402) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $13.19 | $13.32 | +$0.13 | 57% 7798-5980 (13778) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 35.1¢ | $6.06 | $9.55 | +$3.49 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $2.28 | — | -$2.28 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20024-19184 (39208) |
Invested
$90.34
Value
$120
PnL
+$29.66
Record
51%
7452-7030 (14482)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.78
Value
$34.4
PnL
-$3.37
Record
65%
124927-66830 (191757)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$8.75
Value
—
PnL
-$8.75
Record
55%
44783-37243 (82026)
Invested
$13.62
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.62
Record
61%
94725-59677 (154402)
Invested
$13.19
Value
$13.32
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
7798-5980 (13778)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
$9.55
PnL
+$3.49
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Invested
$2.28
Value
—
PnL
-$2.28
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20024-19184 (39208)
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