Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$324.85
$5.59
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $220.02 | $215.87 | -$4.15 | 51% 7452-7030 (14482) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.3¢ | $162.52 | $215.87 | +$53.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $57.5 | — | -$57.5 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $49 | $50 | +$1 | 93% 23285-1761 (25046) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $41.91 | $33.98 | +$0.87 | 64% 22926-12644 (35570) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.3¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 55% 44783-37243 (82026) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $20 | +$9.4 | 65% 124927-66830 (191757) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.8 | $5 | +$2.2 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $3.08 | — | -$3.08 | 61% 94725-59677 (154402) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
Invested
$220.02
Value
$215.87
PnL
-$4.15
Record
51%
7452-7030 (14482)
Both legs:
Invested
$49
Value
$50
PnL
+$1
Record
93%
23285-1761 (25046)
Invested
$41.91
Value
$33.98
PnL
+$0.87
Record
64%
22926-12644 (35570)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
55%
44783-37243 (82026)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.4
Record
65%
124927-66830 (191757)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.2
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Invested
$3.08
Value
—
PnL
-$3.08
Record
61%
94725-59677 (154402)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
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