Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$482.56
$3.81
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $336.87 | $337.21 | +$0.34 | 59% 62172-43352 (105524) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $74.79 | $93.37 | +$18.58 | 51% 7452-7030 (14482) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 12.9¢ | $21.35 | — | -$21.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.2¢ | $53.44 | $93.37 | +$39.93 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $15.46 | $14 | -$1.46 | 55% 44783-37243 (82026) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $19.19 | $23.98 | +$4.79 | 64% 22926-12644 (35570) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $11.14 | $12 | +$0.86 | 61% 94725-59677 (154402) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $0.92 | — | -$0.92 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $1.8 | $2 | +$0.2 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20024-19184 (39208) |
Invested
$336.87
Value
$337.21
PnL
+$0.34
Record
59%
62172-43352 (105524)
Invested
$74.79
Value
$93.37
PnL
+$18.58
Record
51%
7452-7030 (14482)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.46
Value
$14
PnL
-$1.46
Record
55%
44783-37243 (82026)
Invested
$19.19
Value
$23.98
PnL
+$4.79
Record
64%
22926-12644 (35570)
Invested
$11.14
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.86
Record
61%
94725-59677 (154402)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$0.92
Value
—
PnL
-$0.92
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20024-19184 (39208)
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