Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Up 40%
1 arb excluded
$223.8
-$11.93
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 24.4¢ | $100.42 | $108.06 | +$7.64 | 51% 7452-7030 (14482) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.4¢ | $53.56 | — | -$53.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.4¢ | $46.87 | $108.06 | +$61.19 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $101.69 | $102.72 | +$1.03 | 93% 23285-1761 (25046) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $12.63 | $13.02 | +$0.39 | 55% 44783-37243 (82026) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.4¢ | $6.7 | — | -$6.7 | 59% 62172-43352 (105524) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $2.85 | — | -$2.85 | 64% 22926-12644 (35570) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20024-19184 (39208) |
Invested
$100.42
Value
$108.06
PnL
+$7.64
Record
51%
7452-7030 (14482)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.69
Value
$102.72
PnL
+$1.03
Record
93%
23285-1761 (25046)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.63
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$0.39
Record
55%
44783-37243 (82026)
Invested
$6.7
Value
—
PnL
-$6.7
Record
59%
62172-43352 (105524)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Invested
$2.85
Value
—
PnL
-$2.85
Record
64%
22926-12644 (35570)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20024-19184 (39208)
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