Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$531.88
-$31.87
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $256.86 | $294.79 | +$37.94 | 51% 7416-7015 (14431) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45¢ | $132.78 | $294.79 | +$162.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.8¢ | $124.08 | — | -$124.08 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 46.6¢ | $78.3 | $95.08 | +$16.78 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.6¢ | $44.29 | $95.08 | +$50.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.1¢ | $34.01 | — | -$34.01 | |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.7¢ | $49.9 | — | -$49.9 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 71.9¢ | $30.34 | $39.24 | +$8.9 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $29.37 | $32.2 | +$2.83 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $20.82 | $41.64 | +$20.82 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $14.64 | $20.92 | +$6.28 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $11.17 | — | -$11.17 | 56% 57941-44749 (102690) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 58% 60444-44134 (104578) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $5.6 | $7.11 | +$1.51 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $0.42 | $0.89 | +$0.47 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20005-19176 (39181) |
Invested
$256.86
Value
$294.79
PnL
+$37.94
Record
51%
7416-7015 (14431)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$78.3
Value
$95.08
PnL
+$16.78
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$49.9
Value
—
PnL
-$49.9
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$30.34
Value
$39.24
PnL
+$8.9
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$32.2
PnL
+$2.83
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$20.82
Value
$41.64
PnL
+$20.82
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Invested
$14.64
Value
$20.92
PnL
+$6.28
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Invested
$11.17
Value
—
PnL
-$11.17
Record
56%
57941-44749 (102690)
Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
58%
60444-44134 (104578)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$7.11
PnL
+$1.51
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.89
PnL
+$0.47
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20005-19176 (39181)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $39.24
asidjasiodja
Up — $32.2
Little-big
Up — $41.64
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $20.92
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
dvasdkasodk
Up — $7.11