Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 73%
1 arb excluded
$348.26
$50.16
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 29.3¢ | $68.59 | $120 | +$51.41 | 51% 7416-7015 (14431) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.3¢ | $35.2 | $120 | +$84.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.5¢ | $33.39 | — | -$33.39 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 71.4¢ | $29.62 | $40.13 | +$10.51 | 55% 44748-37210 (81958) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $23.3 | $23.32 | +$0.02 | 59% 62167-43333 (105500) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $19.03 | $29.88 | +$10.85 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $20.59 | — | -$20.59 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $14.36 | $22.27 | +$7.91 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $20 | +$2.4 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 37.2¢ | $11.51 | $30.93 | +$19.42 | 58% 60444-44134 (104578) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $8.5 | — | -$8.5 | 54% 10800-9239 (20039) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 43.1¢ | $8.35 | $19.39 | +$11.04 | 56% 57941-44749 (102690) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 61.3¢ | $7.77 | $12.67 | +$4.9 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $7.84 | $8 | +$0.16 | 93% 23242-1759 (25001) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $5.22 | $11 | +$5.78 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $3.2 | $10.67 | +$7.47 | 51% 20005-19176 (39181) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $0.11 | — | -$0.11 | 64% 40003-22867 (62870) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
Invested
$68.59
Value
$120
PnL
+$51.41
Record
51%
7416-7015 (14431)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$29.62
Value
$40.13
PnL
+$10.51
Record
55%
44748-37210 (81958)
Invested
$23.3
Value
$23.32
PnL
+$0.02
Record
59%
62167-43333 (105500)
Invested
$19.03
Value
$29.88
PnL
+$10.85
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
Invested
$20.59
Value
—
PnL
-$20.59
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
Invested
$14.36
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$7.91
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.4
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Invested
$11.51
Value
$30.93
PnL
+$19.42
Record
58%
60444-44134 (104578)
Invested
$8.5
Value
—
PnL
-$8.5
Record
54%
10800-9239 (20039)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$19.39
PnL
+$11.04
Record
56%
57941-44749 (102690)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$12.67
PnL
+$4.9
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.16
Record
93%
23242-1759 (25001)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.78
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$10.67
PnL
+$7.47
Record
51%
20005-19176 (39181)
Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
—
PnL
-$0.11
Record
64%
40003-22867 (62870)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $40.13
0x50f7
Up — $23.32
aaa221
Up — $29.88
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
Up — $22.27
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $20
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $30.93
thesidehustle
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $19.39